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About the role
OBJECTIVES / PURPOSE We are seeking a forecasting-oriented Senior Analyst to join Takeda's GCC Commercial Analytics & Insights (CA&I;) organization in India as part of the Forecasting capability supporting International Business Units (IBU). This individual contributor role is responsible for building, maintaining, and evolving multiple forecast types across Ex-US markets, including short-term in-market demand forecasts, long-term strategic forecasts, patient-based epidemiology forecasts, and launch and event scenarios in partnership with affiliate forecasting leads. The Senior Analyst is accountable for forecast model integrity, assumption discipline, and the business relevance of outputs delivered into brand planning, S&OP;, and portfolio cycles. ACCOUNTABILITIES - Forecast Model Development and Delivery: Build and maintain a portfolio of forecasts across multiple IBU markets and brands, spanning short-term tactical forecasts (24-36 months), long-term strategic forecasts (10+ years), in-line product forecasts, and pre-launch and launch forecasts. - Apply the appropriate forecast methodology to each business question, including patient-based (epidemiology, prevalence, incidence, treatment flow, persistence, compliance, share) approaches, demand-based (trend, time-series, curve fitting, regression, exponential smoothing) approaches, and hybrid models that integrate both. - Conduct scenario and sensitivity analyses for market events, competitive entries, LOEs, pricing changes, indication expansions, and access scenarios across IBU geographies. - Maintain rigorous assumption documentation, version control, and audit trails for every forecast cycle, supporting reproducibility and review by affiliate and global stakeholders. - Track forecast accuracy across cycles, perform variance analyses against actuals, and translate learnings into improved drivers and assumptions for the next cycle. - Data, Methodology, and Tooling: Work with IQVIA MIDAS, local audit data, syndicated subnational data, claims, prescription data, and epidemiology sources to build robust market and patient views across Ex-US geographies. - Apply statistical and machine learning techniques where appropriate including ARIMA, exponential smoothing, regression (single and multivariate), Prophet, and other time-series methods to enhance forecast accuracy for in-market brands. - Build forecast outputs and tracking dashboards in Tableau or Power BI; structure model files in Excel and, where applicable, in Python or R for automation and reproducibility. - Stakeholder Partnership and Communication: Partner with affiliate forecasting leads, brand teams, finance, and global IBU stakeholders to clarify intake, align on methodology, and walk through outputs, assumptions, risks, and scenarios. - Translate model outputs into clear narratives, decision-grade slides, and assumption summaries tailored to commercial, finance, and senior leadership audiences. - Represent the GCC forecasting pod in cross-functional working sessions for brand planning, S&OP;, LRP, and ad-hoc strategic questions. - Process Improvement and Operational Excellence: Identify opportunities to automate recurring forecast updates, standardize templates across markets and brands, and build reusable assumption libraries that improve speed and consistency. - Contribute to building capability within the GCC pod, including knowledge sharing, documentation of best practices, and onboarding support for recent analysts. - Leverage AI and GenAI tools to accelerate data preparation, assumption research, deviation reasoning, and narrative generation within forecasting workflows. KNOWLEDGE, SKILLS & EXPERIENCE Education: Bachelors Degree required in Statistics, Economics, Data Science, Life Sciences, Computer Science, Engineering, or a related quantitative field. Advanced degree (Masters or MBA) in Analytics, Economics, Data Science, Business, or a related quantitative field is strongly preferred. Relevant certifications in forecasting, analytics, cloud platforms, or statistical methods are a plus. Experience: 4-5 years of progressive experience in pharmaceutical forecasting, commercial analytics, healthcare analytics, or related quantitative areas. Hands-on experience building and maintaining multiple forecast types short-term and long-term, in-line and launch, patient-based and demand-based across more than one market. Experience supporting Ex-US markets is required, particularly EU markets; exposure to Asian or Latin American markets is a strong plus. Working knowledge of pharma data assets such as IQVIA MIDAS, local audit data, prescription and claims data, and epidemiology sources for Ex-US markets. Proficiency in advanced Excel for forecast model construction; working knowledge of Python, R, or SAS for data preparation, time-series analysis, and automation. Strong experience with Tableau or Power BI for forecast tracking, scenario reporting, and commercial performance dashboard OB